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Wednesday 7 September 2011

NFL Predictions - 2011 season

With the season a day away, I might as well post my NFL 2011 season predictions.

AFC East Winners: New England Patriots  - With Bill Belichick stil at the helm, the Patriots still have one of the best coaching minds in NFL history and certainly the best in NFL today. Tom Brady is coming off a fantastic MVP year and expect him to have another very strong year. The defence should get better and still force turnovers at key points like last year, with Devin McCourty playing a huge role despite only being a rookie. The signing of Albert  Haynesworth for me is an intriguing as it could pay big dividends if he becomes that disruptive force on the field in the Pats D-Line. Most likely scenario is that he becomes the liability he has shown to be last year or so and the Patriots cut their losses with him. Chad Ochocinco has also joined the Patriots, looking for one last shot at a Super Bowl. He still has a few good years left in him I think and with Brady under center, will catch quite a few deep balls with Welker occupying the slot. Provides a much needed vertical threat for the Patriots. Could go to the Super Bowl with the improvements they have made to an already emerging set of players.

AFC West Winners: San Diego Chargers - I think this year San Diego Chargers will wrestle the AFC West off the Kansas City Chiefs. With Philip Rivers as QB, they are fine at the position and have an elite QB. The offense should pick up where it left off last year, being one of the most explosive vertical threats in the league. Rivers can really air it out and has Vincent Jackson for the full season to help him do that even better ( if that is at all possible). Antonio Gates continues to be amongst the best at the Tight End position but the running game and Ryan Mathews need to improve to give the offense a more balanced look. The special teams was hideous at best, I can think of at least two games where it cost the Chargers the game and there seemed to be a mistake in almost every other game. The defence should settle in more, but the loss of Ron Rivera was a blow. Greg Manusky needs to hit the ground running with his defense, despite the lockout which will be more difficult. This team could become a force in the playoffs, especially if they get home field advantage.

AFC North Winners: Pittsburgh Steelers - This team for me is just a juggernaut right now. Totally stacked at most, if not all the skill-set positions and their defense is a menacing force. Ben Roethlisberger does not have off the field issues hanging over him like last season and this will take the pressure off him. Expect Big Ben to continue to make frequent big plays on the offense. Also the increasing threat of Mike Wallace makes the Steelers' offense more balanced, being very capable of making big vertical plays stretching the field. The defence should see a healthier Troy Polamalu back amongst the ranks, to the one that looked half fit in the playoffs and Super Bowl. I also pondered picking the Ravens to win the division but it seems right now the Steelers have some sort of a hex over the Ravens right now.

AFC South Winners: Houston Texans - This was perhaps the hardest choice for me to make out of all the divisions. I mean how can I bet against Peyton Manning and the Colts but his latest neck injury and the fact I now think Houston is at least on a par with the Colts talent-wise and also seems to now have an edge on defense. The hiring of Wade Philips as defensive coordinator is a huge signing for the Texans and he should certainly improve the ailing Texans defense of 2010. Johnathan Joseph and Danieal Manning should help out the horrendous secondary play of last year. Moving Mario Williams to outside linebacker is a big gamble but if anyone can make it work, it is Wade Philips. On offense, Matt Schaub is has all the tools to hit that next level and with Arian Foster and Ben Tate making it a two-back system in the backfield it has all the makings to continue to be perhaps NFL's most balanced offensive attack. Oh and who can forget the fact they have arguably the best WR in the NFL in Andre Johnson. This really is head coach Gary Kubiak's last chance in Houston.

AFC Wildcard positions:
Baltimore Ravens -  The Ravens have tried to address their WR problems with the trade of Lee Evans but for me, it is still not enough to take over the Steelers. The running game needs to become elite again, with Ray Rice needing a big year after a fairly unspectacular year in 2010. The defence is ageing, with Ray Lewis and Ed Reed not getting any young and with Reed becoming more injury-prone than in previous years. The big question mark still remains whether Joe Flacco can take the Ravens to the Super Bowl. He has a good win-loss playoff record, but seems always to fall prematurely in the playoffs. It is a big test of character for him this year to overcome the Steelers. Time will tell if he has it in him to do so.

 New York Jets  - The Jets will once again be a force once the playoffs start but I always think they will drop games where they should win, like losing to Miami Dolphins at home last year. I am hoping the stabilizers are taken off Mark Sanchez, entering his third year in the league and he becomes much more than just a game manager. I feel this is needed to take them to the Super Bowl. The running game will still be the "bread and butter" for the offense but Sanchez should be able to make more downfield plays to the likes of Santonio Holmes and new addition Plaxico Burress. The defense again will be ranked amongst the league's best but it is important the team does not become over-reliant on the defense to win them games. I feel this team usually gets hot at the right times and could go a long way, but Sanchez needs to take more of a starring role for me.

NFC East Winners: Philadelphia Eagles  - How can you not bet against the Eagles bringing home the NFC East again? The off-season additions of Nnamdi Asomugha, Jason Babin and Cullen Jenkins amongst others should help the team immensely and fill the weaknesses on the defensive line. The only question mark is whether Michael Vick can regain his early 2010 form and not carry on where he ended the 2010 season. Also it is important he does not take too much sacks and physical impact from opponents' defenses and starts a lot of the games. Arguably the biggest concern lingering is whether DeSean Jackson decides to holdout and delay his return to the Eagles. He deserves to big money to compensate for his big play ability. The self-proclaimed "dream team" should win the division.

NFC West Winners: Arizona Cardinals - I thought long and hard about choosing the St Louis Rams. Sam Bradford should have a very good year in an offense coordinated by Josh McDaniels. The Cardinals seem to have quality skill players at the skill positions. They finally seem to have got a quarterback that can at least be competent and get the offense moving in Kevin Kolb. The secondary is very good and the addition of Patrick Peterson softened the blow of Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie. Larry Fitzgerald will always be elite no matter who is under center and the running game and "Beanie" Wells will have to have a good year to keep the offense balanced. Expect them to have a rebound year and reign supreme in the beleaguered NFC West.

NFC North Winners: Green Bay Packers  -  I reckon Green Bay actually have a very good chance of reclaiming the Lombardi trophy. Aaron Rodgers barring the NFC Championship game had a superb playoff run and had a quality season. He can do it all as a quarterback.When you realise they won the Super Bowl last year with so many key players injured such as Ryan Grant and Jermichael Finley and have them back for this year should strike fear into the NFC class of 2011. The defense under Dom Capers was great and Clay Matthews is a premier linebacker in the league and Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams are a great cornerback tandem. It would be foolish to bet against them going far again this year.

NFC South Winners: New Orleans Saints -  When I look in this division Atlanta should get in the playoffs again but in the Wildcard places. For me New Orleans have by far the best quarterback in this division in Drew Brees, the only quarterback in the division that can win a game on his own for me. The wide array of wide receivers they possess makes their offense one of the most exciting to watch in the NFL. Marques Colston again should be the go-to man for Drew Brees. The addition of Mark Ingram gives the Saints that power runner to compliment the likes of Darren Sproles etc. The defense again is good enough to win the division again and Jonathan Vilma will be the quarterback of Gregg Williams' defense again. Should regain the division again largely due to their offense.

NFC Wildcard Positions:
Atlanta Falcons - Like I said before, it was close in choosing between them and the Saints to win the NFC South but liking New Orleans' offense swayed me. In Matt Ryan, the Falcons have an emerging young quarterback that should be the franchise quarterback for many a year. The Falcons drafted Julio Jones to give Ryan more passing weapons beside the excellent Roddy White and future hall of famer Tony Gonzalez but the bread and butter is the physical run game and Michael Turner. Hopefully they do not feel the need to pass more frequently because of the extra talent at Ryan's disposal. The lingering memories for me is their defense being torched by Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The defensive line needs to be more formidable and need John Abraham to keep producing which is a gamble. The secondary and cornerback pair of Dunta Robinson and Brent Grimes is underrated but their line needs to protect them. Should easily make playoffs and just miss out on winning the division.

Dallas Cowboys -  Deliberated long and hard whether or not the New York Giants or Dallas Cowboys would get the last wildcard place in the NFC. The return of Tony Romo, coupled with the injuries the Giants' secondary currently have sold it to me the Cowboys would get the last place. The Cowboys suffered badly when Romo went down with a season ending injury last year. The Dallas faithful can draw off the fact Miles Austin had a break out year with Romo under center in the 2009 season. Expect big production again this year as well. Dez Bryant should be more involved and have a break out year and Felix Jones has the home rum ability you want in your running back. The defense should regain it's spark with Rob Ryan as the new defensive co-ordinator and in DeMarcus Ware, they have one of the premier defensive players in the NFL. The secondary is a worry and Mike Jenkins needs to hit the pro bowl level of 2009 again. I think Rob Ryan should be able to contain most teams' aerial games though and they should reach the playoffs with the talent on the team.

Super Bowl: Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Winner: Green Bay Packers - I have gone for a repeat of last year's super bowl, as I believe both teams are currently the best in their respective conferences. In the Packers they should get their number one running back playing again in Ryan Grant and tight end Jermichael Finley which makes the offense even more better than last year if that is possible. Greg Jennings really took his game to that elite level with his big plays in key games. Pittsburgh should have Big Ben for all 16 games this year instead of missing the first 4 like last year. Hopefully for them Troy Polamalu plays all 16 season games and is fully fit for the playoffs. The younger receivers in Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders should get even bigger roles in the Steelers' vertical attack. For me it comes down to the fact I just think Rodgers is the better quarterback than Roethlisberger and has better wide receivers and a tight end to stretch the Pittsburgh D like last time out.

Regular Season MVP: Philip Rivers - He should have the individual stats to go with the Chargers regaining the division from the Chiefs. Finally will get recognition across the league for being a top 4 quarterback.

Offensive Player of the Year: Adrian Peterson -  I am expecting Peterson to rack up big yardage for the season and most likely lead the league in rushing yards. Teams will not be expecting the run from the Vikings as much with Donovan McNabb at quarterback. Seems to have sorted out his fumbling problem which should further enhance his chances.

Defensive Player of the Year: Darrelle Revis - One of the best defensive players in the league he can do it all. He should play the whole 16 games and come into the season in much better shape than he did last year, due to his holdout in 2010. Rex Ryan will have him flying all over the field in most if not all the games. The league has resisted to give him this award the last few years but I think this is the year he finally gets it.

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